Economic trends

This analysis draws on the International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook of April 2026, the World Bank Macro Poverty Outlook of April 2026 and the African Development Bank (AfDB) African Economic Outlook 2026. Figures for 2025 are estimates and those for 2026 onwards are projections. The institutions do not always use the same definitions or cut-off dates: differences between sources are pointed out.

Growth: a moderate pace

According to the IMF, real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 3.4% in 2024 and by about 2.5% in 2025. The World Bank gives the same order of magnitude (2.5% in 2025) and attributes the slowdown to ageing oil fields and difficulties in the timber and manganese sectors, while public infrastructure investment supported construction and services. The AfDB estimates 2025 growth at 2.7%, with declines in oil, mining and above all timber, partly offset by construction and public works.

For the following years, the IMF projects 2.7% in 2026 and 2.8% in 2027, the AfDB 3.0% in 2026, and the World Bank an average of 3.3% over 2026-2028, driven by demand for manganese, timber, palm oil and rubber.

Inflation: contained prices

Average inflation was 1.2% in 2024 according to the IMF, and is estimated at about 2% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026. The World Bank reports year-on-year inflation of 1.6% in December 2025. Membership of the CFA franc zone and the monetary policy of the Bank of Central African States (BEAC) support this stability: after an increase in December 2025, the BEAC cut its main policy rate from 4.75% to 4.50% on 29 June 2026, according to Sikafinance.

Public finances: rising debt

The fiscal position is the main area of weakness. According to the IMF, gross public debt rose from 70.9% of GDP in 2024 to 78.9% in 2025, and would keep rising in the April 2026 scenario (86.1% in 2026). The World Bank estimates debt at 81.9% of GDP in 2025, with domestic and external arrears of 3.5% of GDP and debt service above 60% of revenue.

Estimates of the 2025 deficit vary by source and definition: 4.6% of GDP for the World Bank, 5.3% for the AfDB and 8.5% for the general government balance calculated by the IMF. In this context, Gabon requested an IMF programme in March 2026, according to the World Bank, and an IMF team visited Libreville in the same period. In July 2026, the State issued a seven-year 920 million dollar eurobond aimed at financing projects.

External accounts: a return to a current account deficit

The current account, in surplus from 2021 to 2024 (1.7% of GDP in 2024 according to the IMF), would move into deficit in 2025 (−3.1% according to the IMF, −1.5% according to the AfDB), as oil revenue falls. At CEMAC level, according to Sikafinance, the BEAC projects foreign exchange reserves equivalent to 4.72 months of imports at the end of 2026.

Outlook and reforms

The institutions agree on the priorities: rebuild fiscal buffers, clear arrears, streamline spending and diversify the economy. The government is relying on local processing of raw materials (a ban on raw manganese exports from 2029), food sovereignty (an end to broiler chicken imports in 2027) and the National Growth and Development Plan 2026-2030. The poverty rate, measured at the 8.30 dollar a day line, is estimated at 33.1% in 2025 by the World Bank, and the AfDB puts unemployment at 20.2%, and 36.3% among young people.