CEMAC: 2024 multilateral surveillance report, Gabon meets only one convergence criterion

The multilateral surveillance report reviews the economic, fiscal and external situation of the member states of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) and their compliance with the convergence criteria. In 2024 two of the four criteria are met community-wide, the reference fiscal balance and the debt ratio, against a single one the year before. Cameroon, the Central African Republic and Equatorial Guinea met two; Congo, Gabon and Chad met one, the inflation criterion in Gabon's case.

Gabon in 2024 according to the report

Economic growth accelerated to 3.2 percent, from 2.2 percent in 2023, with the oil sector growing by 1.0 percent and the non-oil sector by 2.3 percent. The secondary sector grew by 7.0 percent, driven by construction and public works, refining and agrifood industries, while the tertiary sector contracted by 4.1 percent. Inflation fell to 1.2 percent from 3.6 percent in 2023, back under the 3 percent community norm, which had not happened since the war in Ukraine began; the report notes that close to 70 percent of inflation is imported.

The budget swung into the red: an overall deficit of CFAF 378 billion on a commitment basis and including grants, or 2.7 percent of GDP, after a surplus of CFAF 218.4 billion, 1.7 percent of GDP, in 2023. Spending reached CFAF 3,364.7 billion, up 21.1 percent, with capital spending up 98.2 percent. Revenue amounted to CFAF 2,946.7 billion, with oil and gas revenue down 17.4 percent to CFAF 1,142.2 billion. Public debt fell from 76.3 percent of GDP in 2023 to 72.3 percent in 2024. The current account surplus stood at 10.5 percent of GDP and the overall balance of payments recorded a deficit of CFAF 248.6 billion (1.8 percent of GDP).

The report also recalls that Gabon's programme under the International Monetary Fund's Extended Fund Facility expired in July 2024 and that the government has put in place the National Growth and Development Programme (PNCD) for 2026 to 2030.