Data story / Macroeconomy
Public debt: trajectory and comparisons
Brought down to 20% of GDP in 2008, Gabon's public debt has been above 70% again since 2023. IMF and World Bank series show how falling oil revenue and rising spending changed the trajectory, and where Gabon stands within CEMAC.
Gabon's public debt has traced a U-shaped path since 2000: strong deleveraging until 2008, then a rapid rise from 2013. International Monetary Fund (IMF) series make it possible to follow this path and compare it with government revenue and spending. An important caveat: for the IMF, data after 2024 are projections, made before final accounts are available.
From 72% to 20% of GDP, then back above 70%
In 2000, gross general government debt stood at 72.5% of gross domestic product (GDP). It then fell rapidly, to 41.7% in 2005 and 20.1% in 2008, its lowest point in the period. The decline coincided with high oil prices and large budget surpluses, above 6% of GDP every year from 2003 to 2009. After a one-off rise to 26.0% in 2009, the ratio stayed close to 21% from 2010 to 2012.
The trend then reversed: 31.1% in 2013, 44.7% in 2015, 64.5% in 2016. The fall in oil prices from 2014 cut revenue, while spending declined only slowly (23.8% of GDP in 2014, 21.8% in 2016). The ratio peaked at 83.0% in 2020, under the combined effect of the pandemic and lower nominal GDP, before falling back to 65.6% in 2022. It rose again to 70.6% in 2023 and 70.9% in 2024.
For 2025 and 2026 the IMF projects 78.9% and then 86.1% of GDP. The World Bank, in its April 2026 Macro Poverty Outlook, estimated that debt exceeded 80% of GDP at the end of 2025, with domestic and external arrears reaching 3.5% of GDP.
The 2025 and 2026 values are IMF projections.
Revenue melted away with oil
The debt path is explained first by government revenue. According to the IMF, revenue stood at 29.9% of GDP in 2008 and 31.6% in 2013. It fell to 17.1% in 2016 and to 15.3% in 2021, its lowest level since at least 1995. A recovery followed, to 23.3% in 2023, then 21.5% in 2024. IMF projections put it at 20.2% in 2025 and 19.6% in 2026.
Spending followed a different path. After a one-off peak of 34.7% of GDP in 2013, it was cut to 17.1% in 2018. It has been rising since: 21.5% in 2023, 24.8% in 2024 and, according to projections, 28.6% in 2025 and 29.6% in 2026. The World Bank notes that spending rose in 2025 to fund public works, social measures such as fuel subsidies and scholarships, civil service hiring and debt service that exceeded 60% of revenue.
Government revenue and expenditure
% of GDP, general government, 2025 and 2026: IMF estimates
Government revenue (Gabon) went from 31.4 % of GDP in 2000 to 19.6 % of GDP in 2026. The highest value was reached in 2001 (31.9 % of GDP). Government expenditure (Gabon) went from 20.3 % of GDP in 2000 to 29.6 % of GDP in 2026. The highest value was reached in 2013 (34.7 % of GDP).
| Period | Government revenue (% of GDP) | Government expenditure (% of GDP) |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 31.4 | 20.3 |
| 2001 | 31.9 | 27.8 |
| 2002 | 29.4 | 25.7 |
| 2003 | 29.0 | 21.2 |
| 2004 | 27.9 | 20.9 |
| 2005 | 28.7 | 20.8 |
| 2006 | 29.8 | 21.1 |
| 2007 | 27.5 | 19.4 |
| 2008 | 29.9 | 18.9 |
| 2009 | 29.4 | 22.6 |
| 2010 | 25.8 | 23.1 |
| 2011 | 23.5 | 22.1 |
| 2012 | 30.2 | 23.9 |
| 2013 | 31.6 | 34.7 |
| 2014 | 29.7 | 23.8 |
| 2015 | 21.1 | 22.3 |
| 2016 | 17.1 | 21.8 |
| 2017 | 16.4 | 18.1 |
| 2018 | 16.9 | 17.1 |
| 2019 | 19.5 | 17.4 |
| 2020 | 17.6 | 19.8 |
| 2021 | 15.3 | 17.3 |
| 2022 | 18.8 | 19.7 |
| 2023 | 23.3 | 21.5 |
| 2024 | 21.5 | 24.8 |
| 2025 | 20.2 e | 28.6 e |
| 2026 | 19.6 e | 29.6 e |
p: provisional; e: estimate.
Provisional or estimated values are drawn with dashed lines.
From surplus to deficit
The overall general government balance was in surplus every year between 2000 and 2012, peaking at 11.1% of GDP in 2000 and 11.0% in 2008. Since 2013 it has mostly been in deficit: −4.7% in 2016, −2.2% in 2020, a surplus of 1.8% in 2023, then −3.3% in 2024. The primary balance, which excludes interest payments, follows the same trend: 4.8% of GDP in 2023, close to zero in 2024.
Projections for 2025 and 2026 differ across institutions. The IMF projects an overall deficit of 8.5% of GDP in 2025 and 10.0% in 2026, and a primary balance of −5.1% then −6.4%. The World Bank estimates the 2025 deficit at 4.6% of GDP. These gaps reflect different assumptions and preparation dates, and suggest reading these values as orders of magnitude. According to the World Bank, Gabon requested an IMF programme in March 2026.
Public finances
Gross public debt
86.1 % of GDP
2026 (estimate)
Source: International Monetary Fund
General government fiscal balance
−10.0 % of GDP
2026 (estimate)
Source: International Monetary Fund
Primary fiscal balance
−6.4 % of GDP
2026 (estimate)
Source: International Monetary Fund
Government revenue
19.6 % of GDP
2026 (estimate)
Source: International Monetary Fund
Government expenditure
29.6 % of GDP
2026 (estimate)
Source: International Monetary Fund
External debt stocks
6,816.6 M USD
2024
Source: World Bank
External debt
The World Bank publishes the stock of external debt, public and private, in dollars. It stood at 2.49 billion dollars in 2008, after the deleveraging years, then tripled to 7.99 billion in 2022. It then fell to 7.58 billion in 2023 and 6.82 billion in 2024, about a third of 2024 GDP (20.9 billion dollars according to the IMF). This recent fall in the external stock comes with a higher total public debt ratio, which suggests greater reliance on domestic and regional financing, although these series alone cannot measure it precisely.
Comparisons within CEMAC
Gabon belongs to the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC), which shares the CFA franc and a central bank, the Bank of Central African States (BEAC). IMF data for 2024 place Gabon second among the highest debt ratios in the zone, behind the Republic of the Congo.
Public debt and fiscal balance in CEMAC in 2024 (% of GDP)
| Country | Gross debt | Overall fiscal balance |
|---|---|---|
| Republic of the Congo | 98.0 | 3.6 |
| Gabon | 70.9 | −3.3 |
| Central African Republic | 59.9 | −5.0 |
| Cameroon | 43.4 | −1.5 |
| Equatorial Guinea | 36.4 | −0.6 |
| Chad | 31.4 | −2.0 |
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook (SDMX API) (opens in a new tab)
Key takeaways
- Public debt rose from 20.1% of GDP in 2008 to 70.9% in 2024, and IMF projections put it above 85% in 2026.
- The fall in oil revenue after 2014 and the recent rise in spending explain most of this path.
- Deficit estimates for 2025 vary widely across sources, from 4.6% (World Bank) to 8.5% of GDP (IMF).
- The programme requested from the IMF in March 2026 and the clearance of arrears will be key points to watch.
