Two decades of growth and oil dependence

Since the early 2000s, Gabon's economy has moved to the rhythm of oil. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank series brought together on Gabon Eco show modest and uneven growth, income per person that swings with the oil price, and hydrocarbon output that has fallen well below its mid-1990s level. This story walks through the data to see what two decades of growth have changed, and what they have not.

Growth in three phases

Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, as measured by the IMF, falls into three distinct periods. Between 2000 and 2009 it averaged about 0.5% a year, with several years of contraction (−3.6% in 2006, −3.0% in 2008). The 2010 to 2014 period shows a clear acceleration: 7.4% in 2010, 7.1% in 2011, then more than 4% every year until 2014, an average of about 5.9%. Since 2015 growth has slowed again, to about 2% a year on average up to 2024, with a low point of −1.8% in 2020, the year of the Covid-19 pandemic and the collapse in oil prices.

The latest years show a measured recovery: 3.0% in 2022, 2.5% in 2023 and 3.4% in 2024. For 2025 and 2026, the IMF figures (2.5% then 2.7%) are projections, not observed results. The World Bank, in its April 2026 Macro Poverty Outlook, also estimates 2025 growth at 2.5% and links it partly to ageing oil fields and to difficulties in the timber and manganese industries.

Income per person follows the barrel

GDP per capita in current dollars, published by the World Bank, rose from about 3,980 dollars in 2000 to a peak of 10,219 dollars in 2011, driven by high oil prices. It then fell back to 6,677 dollars in 2016 and 6,606 dollars in 2020, before climbing to 8,230 dollars in 2024 and 8,263 dollars in 2025. These movements reflect commodity prices and the CFA franc to dollar exchange rate as much as real activity.

At constant prices the picture is less favourable. The population doubled in a quarter of a century, from 1.28 million people in 2000 to nearly 2.59 million in 2025 according to the World Bank. With population growth above 2% a year throughout the period, real GDP per capita growth was negative in most years of the 2000s. Chaining the annual rates published by the World Bank, real GDP per capita in 2024 remains about 13% below its 2000 level.

Oil rents down, dependence still high

The World Bank measures oil rents as the difference between the value of crude production and its production cost, expressed as a share of GDP. In Gabon they reached 43.7% of GDP in 2000 and still 38.3% in 2012. They dropped below 10% in 2015 and 2016 after the price collapse, then rose again to 15.6% in 2021, the latest year available. Total natural resource rents (oil, gas, forest, minerals) fell from 47.8% of GDP in 2000 to 18.5% in 2021.

This decline does not mean the economy has broken free of oil. It mostly reflects lower volumes and prices. The Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) data for 2022 show that the extractive sector, oil and manganese included, accounted for 95.3% of total exports, 68.1% of government revenue and 30.3% of GDP.

Exports dominated by fuels

Fuels, meaning crude oil and petroleum products, made up more than 80% of merchandise exports for almost the entire 2000s, peaking at 90.0% in 2010. Their share fell to 30.9% in 2016, a year of low prices, before returning to 67.3% in 2022 and 54.0% in 2023. In 2023, ores and metals, mainly manganese, reached 23.3% of merchandise exports, compared with less than 7% in previous years. This rise still needs to be confirmed over several years, but it points to an early diversification of sales abroad.

Oil output far from its 1990s level

Oil production, expressed in energy content by the Energy Institute and published by Our World in Data, peaked at about 212 terawatt hours (TWh) in 1996. It fell almost continuously to 105 TWh in 2021, roughly half the 1996 level. The following years show a recovery: 129.6 TWh in 2023, 130.2 TWh in 2024 and 131.8 TWh in 2025, about 62% of the 1996 peak. The World Bank Macro Poverty Outlook nonetheless expects a structural decline in output in the coming years.

The structure of the economy has changed little

World Bank value added accounts confirm the central role of industry in the broad sense, which includes oil and mineral extraction, energy and construction. Its share has ranged between 42% and 62% of GDP since 2000: 52.9% in 2024 and 47.2% in 2025. Services accounted for 36.8% of GDP in 2024 and 42.3% in 2025, and agriculture, forestry and fishing between 6% and 7% in recent years. Manufacturing, which includes wood processing and refining, has been between 19% and 22% of GDP since 2021.

Key takeaways

• Real growth averaged about 2.2% a year between 2000 and 2024, a pace below population growth for much of the period.
• Income per person in dollars closely tracks oil cycles, with a peak in 2011.
• Oil rents have fallen sharply as a share of GDP, but the extractive sector still provided more than two thirds of government revenue in 2022 according to the EITI.
• The rise in manganese exports in 2023 and the projects cited by the World Bank, including the ban on raw manganese exports planned for 2029, are the main diversification signals to watch.