Published a few months after the change of regime in August 2023, this note observes that growth slowed to 2.3 percent in 2023, from 3.0 percent in 2022, as timber and manganese output fell, fuel costs stayed high and landslides cut the rail link. Oil output grew by 3.7 percent.
The fiscal deficit is estimated at 1.0 percent of GDP in 2023, and public debt at 70.5 percent of GDP, including arrears and Treasury bills. External arrears are estimated at CFAF 123 billion (1.0 percent of GDP) at end-2023. The Bank of Central African States (BEAC) kept its policy rate at 5.0 percent, and inflation fell from 5.2 percent in January 2023 to 2.7 percent in October. The poverty rate at the US$6.85 a day line is estimated at 35.2 percent in 2023.
The note projects average growth of 2.7 percent over 2024 to 2026, driven mainly by non-oil sectors (new iron and manganese deposits, timber, oil palm, biodiesel, gas). It expects fiscal deficits averaging 4.9 percent of GDP over the period and poverty rising to 36.9 percent in 2026.
