Published on 16 April 2026, the World Bank's Macro Poverty Outlook reports that gross domestic product (GDP) growth slowed to 2.5% in 2025 from 3.4% in 2024, as oilfields matured and the timber and manganese sectors faced difficulties. Public infrastructure investment supported services and construction.
The fiscal deficit is estimated at 4.6% of GDP in 2025 and public debt at 81.9% of GDP, with domestic and external arrears of 3.5% of GDP. Debt service exceeded 60% of revenue. Inflation stood at 1.6% year on year in December 2025. The share of the population below the 8.30 dollars a day poverty line (2021 purchasing power parity) is estimated at 33.1% in 2025.
For 2026-2028 the World Bank projects average growth of 3.3%, driven by global demand for manganese, timber, palm oil and rubber. The note mentions upcoming iron ore production at Belinga, a poultry import ban planned for 2027 and a crude manganese export ban planned for 2029. It recommends using any oil windfall prudently to rebuild fiscal buffers, clearing arrears and rationalising spending.
