This two-page note places the Gabonese economy in the context of the political transition that began in August 2023. Growth slowed to 2.4 percent in 2023, as landslides blocked the railway and weighed on manganese and timber exports. The current account surplus remained high, at 28.5 percent of GDP. The fiscal deficit reached 1.0 percent of GDP in 2023, and the identification of additional debt components brought public debt to 72.1 percent of GDP.
Inflation eased to 1.0 percent year on year in June 2024, and credit to firms grew by 23.3 percent year on year at the same date. According to the note, 35.1 percent of Gabonese were below the US$6.85 a day line (2017 PPP) in 2023, some 855,000 people.
The World Bank projects growth of about 2.9 percent a year in 2024 to 2026: depleting reserves would reduce oil output from 2025, offset by timber, oil palm, rubber and new iron and manganese deposits. Without corrective measures, notably on fuel subsidies, fiscal deficits would average 4.3 percent of GDP over the period. The note also mentions the downgrades of Gabon's ratings by Moody's and Fitch and the International Monetary Fund's May 2024 debt sustainability analysis, in which the Fund judged the risk of debt distress to be high.
Key figures from the note
Real GDP growth
2.4 %
2023
Public debt
72.1 % of GDP
2023
Current account balance
28.5 % of GDP
2023
Population below US$6.85 a day
35.1 %
2023
