According to Gabonmediatime, the Gabonese government justifies the downward revision of its growth forecast by international geopolitical tensions and by recommendations from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC), for the sake of preserving fiscal balances. The 2026 PLFR is based on 4.4% growth in the non-oil sector, a 3.1% increase in oil production, an oil price assumption of 75 dollars a barrel, and a doubling of gold production.
In its May 2026 report, the AfDB puts Gabon's growth forecast at 2.7%, markedly below the government's figure. It highlights the country's exposure to global geopolitical tensions, commodity price volatility and supply chain disruptions, and calls for structural reforms in revenue mobilisation, fiscal discipline and economic diversification to reduce dependence on hydrocarbons.
Gabonmediatime also notes that public investment fell sharply in the PLFR, from 2,137 billion to 1,169 billion CFA francs, due to several projects being dropped from the programme for lack of feasibility studies.
