Hydrocarbons: output, rents and fiscal dependence

Context

Oil has been at the heart of Gabon's economy for decades. It weighs on growth, exports and above all on public finances. Natural gas, long marginal, is now produced in larger volumes but remains an order of magnitude below oil. This analysis brings together the indicators available on Gabon Eco (World Bank, Energy Institute via Our World in Data) and material published by the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) and the World Bank.

The legal framework is set by Law no. 002/2019 of 16 July 2019 regulating the hydrocarbons sector, which replaced the 2014 law. It defines operators' rights and obligations, the institutional framework, and the tax, customs and foreign exchange regimes, and includes provisions on building national capacity, reporting on operations and natural gas development. Gabon, an EITI member since 2007, was delisted in 2013 and readmitted in October 2021; its latest validation, in 2025, gave it a score of 73.5 points, a level of performance rated moderate.

Key figures

According to the EITI, the extractive sector, oil and manganese included, accounted in 2022 for 95.3% of total exports, 68.1% of government revenue, 30.3% of gross domestic product (GDP) and 3.7% of employment. This contrast between a large economic and fiscal weight and a small share of jobs is typical of a capital-intensive activity.

Trends

Oil output: a long decline, then stabilisation

Measured in energy content, oil production reached about 212 terawatt hours (TWh) in 1996, the highest level in the series. It fell to 160.7 TWh in 2000, 135.4 TWh in 2010 and 105.2 TWh in 2021, its low point. Output then recovered: 110.7 TWh in 2022, 129.6 TWh in 2023, 130.2 TWh in 2024 and 131.8 TWh in 2025. This rebound brings production back close to its early 2010s level, without returning to that of the 1990s.

Natural gas: volumes about five times higher than before 2012

Natural gas production stayed close to 1 TWh a year until 2011 (0.76 TWh that year). It rose to 4.2 TWh in 2012 and reached 5.7 TWh in 2018, its peak. It has since held around 5 TWh (5.17 TWh in 2024). In energy terms, gas is therefore about 4% of oil production. Gas rents remain small, between 0.18% and 0.29% of GDP from 2011 to 2021.

Rents and exports: price volatility

Oil rents as measured by the World Bank, meaning the value of production minus its cost, depend on prices as much as volumes. They stood at 37.2% of GDP in 2008 and 38.3% in 2012, then fell to 10.0% in 2015 and 9.0% in 2016. They rose to 18.3% in 2018, fell back to 10.0% in 2020 and reached 15.6% in 2021, the latest year published.

The fuel share of merchandise exports follows the same pattern: 90.0% in 2010, 30.9% in 2016, 67.3% in 2022 and 54.0% in 2023. The 2023 decline comes with higher exports of ores and metals, which reached 23.3% of the total that year.

Constraints

• Mature fields. The World Bank April 2026 Macro Poverty Outlook attributes the 2025 growth slowdown (estimated at 2.5%) partly to ageing oil fields and technical incidents that reduced output.
• Fiscal dependence. With more than two thirds of government revenue coming from the extractive sector in 2022, any fall in prices or volumes feeds straight into the budget. The World Bank reports that oil revenue declined in 2025 due to lower prices and production.
• Cost of subsidies. The same source notes that higher oil prices linked to the conflict in the Middle East should raise oil revenue, but also the cost of fuel subsidies.
• Labour relations. The World Bank mentions risks of strikes in the oil sector in 2026.

Outlook

The World Bank projects average growth of 3.3% a year over 2026 to 2028, driven by manganese, timber, palm oil and rubber, which would offset the structural decline of oil. It recommends using any oil windfall prudently to rebuild fiscal buffers and reserves. For the sector itself, the main points to watch are the path of production after the 2023 to 2025 rebound, the natural gas development encouraged by the 2019 law, and the regular publication of EITI reports, which track flows between companies and the State.